Stay positive

I've always been skeptical that "the power of positive thinking" was little more than bullshit. This article on Alternet pretty much confirms it.

BTW - the Archdruid is back and has been doing a series of interesting articles. This one on the influence of Mexico in the southwest is worth a read.

Mini In The Box

Don't buy anything from this online store.
I really wanted some LED lights to replace the bulbs in my bathroom, and since they're rather expensive, I searched the internet for a good deal. I found one, from Mini In The Box.
Silly me - bulbs from overseas DON'T WORK IN AMERICA.
Lesson learned. Save youself the trouble and don't order anything from Miniinthebox.com.

It's getting hot in here

Meteorologists in Missouri have already determined that 2012 has been the hottest year on record for much of the state. This, as I crack the window on Dec. 1, is somewhat disturbing. We don't even have to wait until the end of year for evidence our planet is warming.
Other reports this week state that polar ice is melting faster than previously expected. On the heels of multiple natural disasters this year, you'd think we'd start paying attention.
There is little doubt that burning fossil fuels and pumping carbon into the atmosphere is acerbating this condition. Yet, many politicians think we still need MORE fossil fuels to keep the party going.
I think it's time to put on our big boy pants and start looking for a way out of this mess. As much as I enjoy wearing short sleeves in December, I'd also like my children to have a planet to call home.

chillax

I'm getting a little kick out of all my conservative friends declaring the end times following the president's re-election. There's the "voting anomalies," in various states (voter fraud still doesn't exist - only two-thirds of eligible voters cast a ballot.), there's the coming health care layoffs, the fiscal cliff, the austerity crisis...
I think it's funny because, what did they think would happen if Romney had been elected?
Pretty much the same stuff, I imagine.
Here's a fantastic interview with Archdruid, who puts it all in perspective. When the four horseman of the apocalypse arrive, offer beer.

Finding truth

I'm going to have to tell some of my friends on Facebook to step away from the FOX News. It's making you sound crazy like Todd Akin.
It's science, people.
I found it interesting that many of the early comments last week on an blog post about Hurricane Sandy on Accuweather were harumpphing about storms being connected to climate change. "Really? There's no way any one storm is a product of climate change. It's not even hot out."
She's dropping tons of water on the east coast right now. And here's the thing - while we can't pin down causation of any given storm to climate change, you can say generally that climate change is impacting the number and size of storms we're seeing. This one is at the end of the supposed hurricane season. They're all connected to climate change now.
Here's a great blog post from Bob Priddy on the Missourinet about Carnegie, and his views on wealth. Some might consider him "old school." He thought men should give their wealth away while they lived, so they could direct the good causes it benefitted. You know, mankind.
Not today's leaders, who think we should eliminate the estate tax, let men keep more of their own money, and starve government of any purpose at all. Except government does a lot of things that we all need and want.
It seems our nation is sleepwalking into the abyss, only because we don't want to wake up. It's much easier to listen those who promise a return to greatness and plug away, hoping that the twinge of commonsense we feel in our brain will go away. Yet, you don't have to scratch far to see it for what it is.

civic duty

Here's what you need to understand about the upcoming election. No one is going to solve our problems and send us back to the happy days of cheap energy. If we cheer for that delusion, we end up with a scapegoat and an even bigger mess. Yet that's where we're headed.
Some may not even vote, because it doesn't matter. While I think it's fair to say Washington is broken (probably more accurately brokered), that doesn't abdicate us from our civic duty. We choose our government, and we get the government we deserve.
If we fall for the slick-talking, snake oil salesman in the fancy suit, then I think we know what to expect. 
A bellyache.

magical thinking

I've read some interesting things lately showing how growth is really our problem. Anyone with a high school education should be able to understand that all things have limits. We live on a finite planet. It's not rocket science.
Yet, Republicans still believe that growth is the answer to our problem. Mitt Romney suggests that if we just lower the tax rate, businesses will hire and everything will be rainbows. Our economy will grow so much that we'll have more revenue, (hopefully enough to erase the excess environmental damage from burning carbon to fuel all that growth. Go easy on big oil, yo!)
What else should we expect from someone who believes in magic underwear?
Fact: Income disparity in America is as great as it was in the 1920's - the era of the robber barons. Tax cuts have concentrated more wealth in the hands of the few. And where are the jobs? Give a poor man a dollar and he spends it. That's what drives this economy. If the rich think they can hide out in the Catskills from the starving, angry mobs, then I hope they ask Marie Antoinette about how laissez-faire worked out for 18th century France. I bet she's speechless.

We can do better

Come on, Missouri.  We can do better.
I'm worried that society is slipping into the fringe. People are coming unhinged, and it's playing out in movie theatres, grocery stores and behind closed doors in our homes. Faced with an uncertain future and shrinking resources, people are checking out rather than buckling down. Let's not go out this way.
Times may be tough, but we control the outcomes. We can do better.
One place  you see the frustration is in our public discourse. Everything is super-partisan now. Wages are falling? It's because our socialist president has the wrong policies. Health-care cost going up? Must be Obamacare. It's never the result of our own actions, or inaction, if you will. Don't look for a logical explanation - just listen to what that candidate says, who promises roses if you just elect him.
You see it in the policies of the right. Voter ID. Obviously a plan to suppress the vote, by making it harder for poor and old people to vote. You see, minorities are more likely to vote for Democrats. And even though GOP leaders in other states have admitted as much, our own politicians hold on to the charade that we have to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
They'll try and cut the budget, too, but not for the super-wealthy, who pad their campaign coffers. The rich already "pay their fair share," as if the size of our contribution is all that matters.
And in the name of Jesus, no less.
GOP voters in a recent primary voted to alter our constitution to "protect" the right to pray. Not that it needed protecting. We'll see if it holds up to legal scrutiny. Most likely not.
We got another look this weekend. The Missouri candidate for senate let this beauty fly this weekend. He opposes abortion in all cases, including rape, because women's bodies have a magical way of shutting down pregnancy when it's "legitimate" rape.
I love Missouri, and I'm proud of my heritage. But it seems we're letting our common sense slip away for the comfort of delusion. I pray that we find it again.

nowledge

Fall is approaching - it's back to school time in Missouri. Republicans will try and school us in all the evils that we must guard against. Obamacare is going to raise the cost of pizza by 11 cents! We have to protect the voting process by making it tougher to vote! There's a great article in the KC Star this week making the point again that the promoted solution fixes a problem that doesn't exist. Just like they say we must make cuts to social security and medicare because of a debt problem - caused by wars, prescriptions, TARP and the Bush Tax cuts that they voted for.
I wonder if we don't need to be taken to school. Maybe our public education system has failed us if we can't discern fear from common sense, or need from equality. Here's a thoughtful article from Sharon on the value of education.

when the lights go out

While a coalition in Missouri is trying to jump start the next wave in nuclear energy (here's a look at the technology suggested for an addition to Callaway), a third of the citizens of a major country in another part of the world experienced power outages. Officials in India were too baffled to explain the problem - too much demand for too little supply.
You might think that would never happen here, but beliebe me, never say never.

Water

"Water, water everywhere, and nary a drop to drink."
We overlook one of the most important and basic resources - water. It makes up the majority of our bodies and encompasses the globe, and yet, we're awfully casual about how we use it - until it comes down to a fight over access.
That might become more common than you think. It's always been present in the west (California), and it will become more pronounced in the southwest. The midwest is now experiencing the worst drought in 50 years - Missouri was declared a primary disaster area. It will affect corn and soybean prices (food) and it's having an effect on energy supplies as well.
That's why depleting aquifers and reservoirs is a big deal, and why people are concerned about gas extraction techniques like fracking, which use a lot of water and have questionable effects on groundwater sources. According to climate models, the southwest will beome more dry, and while we'll still get lots of rainfall around here during inpportune times, we'll have longer periods of drought as well. This is what climate change looks like.
It's more than watering our lawns - growing food is pretty important. And the weather this year might damage the majority of the crop. Think about all of the industry that uses water. I found alarm in this article about a nuclear plant, which draws cooling water from a lake. The long string of hot days has kept the lake from cooling at night, pushing temperatures above what is acceptable.
Asked whether he viewed Braidwood’s difficulties as a byproduct of global warming, Mr. Nesbit said: “I’m not a climatologist. But clearly the calculations when the plant was first operated in 1986 are not what is sufficient today, not all the time.”
Need I remind you that we battled flooding this time last year. Back to back extremes.
If you're still saying that climate change is bunk - I just can't take you seriously.

lessons from history

I know, the title is an oxymoron. Sadly, we need to be reminded of those lessons delivered in the annals of history. As we contemplate record heat and drought - St. Louis setting records for days over 90 and 100 degrees, corn crops drying-out in the sun, landslides on glaciers so large that they register as earthquakes - here's a lesson from the Mayans regarding water supplies and drought:  Most agree that a period of drought is what eventually broke the empire. Food and water.
Irony? 2012, and the message we're getting from the Mayans is 'beware the climate.'
More irony? That we have to stretch to remember the simple technology - so advanced for that culture - and yet not so complex, it can't be maintained. Sustained.
(Unfortunately, not all sustainability methods are truly sustainable, but that's not an excuse to avoid taking any action. The first step in emergency management is mitigation, and conservation fills that.)
Many are starting to recognize that this is what climate change looks like. We can surely adapt, but with such wild swings that it adds complexity.
And that's the rub. Solutions to all of our major problems - fossil fuel depletion, climate change and the economy - require great complexity and cost to maintain. So we'll likely solve none of them until we shift the paradigm to a new way of living - one in accord with nature. One that fits into the natural cycles of life, whatever they may be.
Because someone always asks - what do we do? Start building something better.

the natural cycle of things

Many of the challenges we face today are results of our abandonment of the natural cycle of things. We've been lucky to live during the cheap energy bonanza, but let's face it; without a supply of cheap energy, our entire way of life is unsustainable. Recent studies confirm that we're using 1.5 earths supply of resources, and the population continues to grow.
Our use of these ancient gifts has enabled vast leaps in the quality of life, but it has also put strain on our environment and encouraged us to believe that anything is achievable when the facts tell us otherwise.
Change can be difficult, but it's also inevitable. We've survived this long because we've adapted, and we'll continue to do so. However, we have to reconsider every aspect of how we organize life and get back to something that earth says we can handle. Don't think of it as giving something up, but rather a recognition that we are just another part of the cycle of life, and the best path is one that rides within it's place in this world.

This is what climate change looks like

Hot enough for you? The MissouriNet reported this week that it looks like the worst summer since 1988 - the last period of prolonged drought we've had in recent history. Not surprising, after the mild winter following repeated years of record temperatures. Communities are canceling Fourth of July fireworks celebrations as wildfires rage around the country. Scientists say that this is what climate change looks like. We've had examples this year that eerily follow computer models for climate change. More moisture at inopportune times (spring planting season and fall harvest season), with longer periods of drought inbetween. Spells trouble for anyone who likes to eat - growing food just got a lot harder.
Not like we didn't have enough problems already.
The end of cheap energy is putting pressure on all of our systems - finance notably playing out in markets around the world. Some are pointing to rising oil and gas stocks as an example that we have ample supply, but that ignores the myriad of other issues at play. American oil use is down - and that's partially because high cost is driving some to conserve or leave the market. The glut is reducing prices - good for us, but bad for producers. You see, the surge in supply is coming because high prices support new techniques and riskier conquests. Tar sands and deep water is very expensive to produce, and falling prices only ensures that some of that will become uneconomical.
We're seeing it already with natural gas. The president of EXXON admitted "we're losing our shirts" on gas this week. The recent boom in shale gas drilling has produced a surplus - which lowers the price. Unfortunately, that means it becomes unprofitable, and many wells are now being abandoned.
All of these issues are related - we're creating more problems with climate change by continuing to burn fossil fuels. We're running out of cheap, available resources and the economy requires growth to pay for expansion. While higher prices enable new solutions, they also destroy demand, because we're already stretched too thin. And so we teeter on the edge, with boom and bust looming overhead.
Meanwhile, lives and homes burn, farms go bust, cities are flooded and landscapes torn apart. All because the Ameican way of life is non-negotiable.
And the meek shall inherit the earth.

Hot enough for you?

I've been meaning to post a few of these links lately, but I keep getting sidetracked on projects. It seems people are starting to figure out somethings wrong with the climate. Remember that awesome early spring? It's been followed by an early summer drought - and it's not even June. Farmers say if we don't get rain soon, you can kiss this year's crop goodbye.
That got me thinking, and then I read this article today about food. It's more important than you think.

End of growth

I watched bits of Meet the Press this morning between heavy rain showers and I am astounded by the Republican message. For the next six months, they'll say that the presidents policies aren't working and if we only return to Republican leadership, growth will once again be possible. The Bush tax cuts that kick-started the worst recession since the Great Depression are necessary (for the rich) and it's too much regulation that that is stifling growth (anybody think Wall Street needs less supervision?). The middle-class just needs to give a little more to corporations and wealth will rain down like West Texas Crude. 
And if you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you.
Are we really that dumb?
Sadly, we may be. No doubt the economy is still weak, and if you understand how we use energy, it's not likely to improve. The big myth that Republicans are selling is growth. That if we make things easier for business, growth will return which will lead to jobs and retirement income. Only it won't. We've seen the end of growth. We have too much population on a finite planet with a system that requires infinite growth to sustain itself.
Game over.
There were some really great articles this week on Energy Bulletin, and I'll try to start linking more often. This one explains the difficulty with our economy, and why a steady-state economy is the only option.  The Archdruid has been doing some great analysis on the intersect of our nation's history, policy and strategy, and he mentioned another subject that is suddenly back in the news. Global warming has taken a backseat to the economy, and yet, recent reports suggest massive methane plumes from melting Arctic ice. These are things predicted by the climate scientists - remember, the alarmist science people who predicted most of the changes we're seeing in our climate?
Something else we've forgotten about - the Gulf oil spill. You probably figured that was all cleaned up, right? Just this week, authorities in Alabama shut down shrimping and fishing along the coast after fishermen and inspectors reported deformed and sickened sea creatures.
Keeping this charade going is the last thing we need. If you think the presidents policies aren't working, it's possible. If you agree with Republicans - that we need more tax breaks for the wealthy, fewer programs for the poor and less regulation for corporations - then you've been duped.
No one we elect is going to lower energy prices, or create jobs or save social security. No one is going to magically grow an economy that is already struggling against constraints. If you vote for someone because they promise you the sky, then who is to blame when it comes crashing down?
My hope is that we've heard enough to know we've heard it all before. It's time to send a message that we're serious - and we expect our leaders to be.

oops, there it is

While Republicans were busy blaming Obama's energy policy for the high cost of filling up their SUVs, an interesting article appeared in the KC Star last week. An AP study found no correlation between domestic drilling and the price of gas. Despite lagging demand and higher production than previous years in the U.S., the price of oil continues to rise. Pop!
That's the sound of delusions deflating.
Suddenly, all of those conversations about peak oil ring true. Global demand is what drives prices, and physics rule. Supply is only available at a premium price - it costs a lot of money to build pipelines to ship ecocidal tar sands to Asia. (oh, you thought that was OUR oil?)
Clearly, it's well past time to talk about alternatives to oil. And it's time to write a letter to our grandchildren. We can't undo the damage we've done. We can only start to do things the right way.

the downward slope

Here's the one thing you need to understand about gas prices. They will continue to rise because global supply has peaked. There's nothing we can do to change that. It's time to have serious discussions about how we use energy.

$5 gas

Gas prices continue to rise and we're hearing all the normal crazy talk about lowering prices. Of course, lower prices would be a boost the economy, but the dangerous thing with seeking lower priced oil is that solutions ignore the fundamental causes. Already, Republicans are blaming Obama's energy "attitude" for the price increase and people are fervently repeating calls to drill more, burn more, mine more, use more.
We can't grow our way out of a resource problem. The lack thereof is the problem.
The first step is to understand why gas is getting more expensive. Then get busy finding ways to use less.
Oh, and for all those who seem to think burning endless amounts of fossil fuels has no effect on the planet - everything has consequences.

Talk cents

The latest edition of "Rural Missouri" points out the economic sense of energy saving lightbulbs. It also points out good ways to save money with insulation and better furnaces. Funny. Seems like those same pages recently contained editorials railing at the EPA and government invtervention. Must be a fine line for power companies to protect their profit while saving money for the consumer.
Which is one reason we have public utilities in the first place.
It's going to be difficult to stem the outrage this summer as gas prices increase. In case you don't remember, it was as similar spike in 2008 that set off the great recession. I predict spikes like this for the forseeable future. Demand causes an increase in price until it damages the economy, when falling demand causes prices to drop. Over time, the spikes and the floor both grow higher. Growing global demand is raising prices while production remains stagnant.
As prices rise this summer, anger will spike with the heat and people will be looking for an answer - any answer. The old mantras of "we've got plenty of oil" and other themes aimed at keeping the party going will sound enticing. Except we know the truth.
This is why gas prices are rising, and there's no cure. We have reached the peak of fossil fuel production and supply will only decline from here on out. There will be plenty of oil - for those who can afford it. But don't count on that being you - or us. And politicians sure don't want to talk about that.
Meanwhile, the climate continues to deteriorate before our eyes. Most scientists are in agreement and alarmed. Our current path leads to destruction, and yet, the only real solution offered by either party is more of the same. (To his credit, Obama is at least suggesting alternatives)
Don't be suckered into thinking hydrogen will save the day, or bullied into agreeing that we just need to drill more. We need to shift the paradigm. Our future won't be anything like our past. For better or worse.

There's no tomorrow

As gas prices begin to climb (must be an election year), everyone will talk about what we can do to bring prices down. That's the wrong goal. Here's what you need to understand about energy and the economy in a short 30 minute film.
Don't let the size of reserves fool you either - there will be a lot of fossil fuels for many years to come. The problem is we can't produce as much as we consume, and the cost of burning more is too great. Supply and demand is driving the price and will continue to drive it higher for the foreseeable future.
So, the solution isn't to burn more, it's to find a way to use less. The invisible hand of the market is telling us, "Dust off your bike."

The beginning is near

Interesting op-ed using poetry to change the focus. It's thick reading, but beautiful.

Waiting for the other shoe to drop

The story builds every day. We just learned that many doctors around the nation are going broke. Some of us have experienced the same conundrum in the housing industry - when people can't pay the bills, nobody gets paid. Even country clubs will go bankrupt. A strong middle class is the key to our economy. 
The price of oil is keeping pressure on the economy. Prices are rising everywhere, including your Lottery ticket. But the middle class isn't getting a raise.
Some now have revived talk of a new pipeline, which Canada really wants us to do - but NASA scientist James Hansen said that would mean "game over" for the climate. Feel like winter to you?
And while some may think that technology will save us, or the world will end before any of this makes a difference, JMG points out this week that it's quite likely that things will just slowly keep getting worse.
Ready to take action? Or are you still waiting for the other shoe to drop?